Blake Butterfield

When you place any wager, you have one goal and one goal only. You want to win. With NFL football and college football in particular, you want to beat the spread. We have covered everything up to why and how spreads are made to why they can change on the same site or be different from site to site. Now we will use our knowledge with some examples to show how you should use variances in point spreads to increase the chances of winning your wager.

Without getting into the math of the whole thing trust me when I say that, because of the juice taken when laying 110 to win 100, you must hit 52.4% of your bets in order to just break even. Over the course of a season, every win adds up and making decisions based on an extra half point in a game could be the difference between having a season to brag about or not.

In fact, although it depends on who you ask, many experts put the extra advantage of one half of a point in your favor at about 4%. That four-percent alone is enough to put you over the vigorish hump if you otherwise hit your wagers on a 50/50 basis. By finding overlays within your book, you can increase your edge but there are other ways to give you even better odds of winning. The best option is to have accounts at more than one book. The more accounts you have, the more lines you have available to you and the more options you have when it comes to finding the line that gives you the best possible opportunity to win your wager.

Common sense would dictate that, if you like the Jets at -5, you would rather have them at -4.5. If you could find them at -4, that would be even better.

The value in these small increments can be huge, especially around the key football numbers 3 and 7 (which we will discuss later) and in smaller spreads in general. For example, there is a higher probability that a half point will make a difference from a -5 to -5.5 spread than if the spread were -18.5 and moved to -19. Of course, you should still take the value wherever you see it.

Betting is a game of chance and every increase in your chance to win needs to be taken advantage of if you are to be successful. Even if you have only two sportsbook accounts you will find games where you can find value like this. Of course, there has to be a line drawn somewhere and, at some point, you have to make a decision and stick with it, otherwise you will spend too much time shopping around and miss the opportunity to take advantage of the best line you saw.

If the Jets won the above game by 5 points, you would have gotten your money back on a push with the first line of -5. Not bad, but you would have won your bet if you had shopped and taken either of the other lines.

Another way you can take advantage of NFL spreads is by knowing what games are coming up next and, after you decide what way you think the lines will move, either take the early line or wait until later in the week to see if the line moves your way. In other words: Start handicapping for yourself. Not only will this increase your chances of winning, but it will also save you money if you decide you need the extra help but don’t want to pay for a service.

Here are a couple general rules for handicapping spreads that will help throughout the season:
1)    In general, the public likes favorites.
2)    Big-name power teams like the Cowboys and the Redskins have tons more fans than many other teams. BMs must take into consideration when setting lines for these teams the fact that the huge number of fans might skew the betting in their direction and so they might set the spread for these teams higher than what they would otherwise do if all else was even.

Say you see that the Cowboys are playing the Cardinals, favored by -10 and you think that is a bit high. If the Cards have been playing well, you might be right and any BM might agree, but explain that, if he were to have set the number lower, too much money would have come pouring in from the Cowboys nation and the book would have been too far offside. Because the line he sets is not what he thinks the final score will indicate, but is instead a guess at the number that will evenly divide bettors, he had to set the line higher. You could take the Cardinals here at +10 and be getting value, or getting an edge on the book.

Seeing the value in the above game, and taking it, is not a bad option at all but you might even want to wait just a bit to see if the Cowboy fans still bite and push the line up even more. If you watch the attached money lines, you can get a good indication of which way the line might move long before the book will change the spread. If the money line on the Cowboys starts getting higher, moving from -110 to -115 or -120, you know the public is taking them more than the Cards. You will also notice the money line on the Cardinals getting cheaper at the same time to try enticing the public to bet on Arizona. If this is the case, you might want to wait a bit and see if the book moves the spread to -10.5 or even -11, giving you even better value on your Cardinal wager.

On the other hand, if you see the Cards money line getting more expensive, you know the Cowboy fans are being either smart or outnumbered and, if that continues, the line will drop from -10 down to -9.5 or -9. If you see this trend start in the money line and you like Arizona in the game, you will want to take the line at -10 because it might be the best line of the week. If you can get your team an extra half or full point without paying for it, then you are well on your way to becoming a better handicapper and the chances for you to make money on your wagers over the long term are significantly increased.

Timing is the key to beating the numbers. It does you no good at all to see that early line of -10 on the Cowboys and think it is too high but wait too long to place your bet if the Cardinal bettors end up pushing the line down. If you had waited and got the line at -9.5 and the Cowboys ended up winning by 10 points, your waiting cost you money. Although you would have pushed, getting your money back is certainly better than losing it for being too slow!

Rules of thumb for beating the number:

1)    If you like the favorite and the money line is rising, the spread might get bigger. Wait it out and you might get a better number.
2)    If you like the underdog and the money line is rising, get your bet in early to get the biggest number for your team. If the line does change, your team will lose points.
3)    If you like the favorite and the money line is getting cheaper, take the line as it looks like the spread will be falling.
4)    If you like the underdog and the money line is getting cheaper, wait to place your bet. If the spread changes, it will be in your favor.

Betting on NFL football or college football is not a science, but if you approach it that way, your chances of success will simply be that much higher.

We have now covered the true reasoning behind NFL football and college football point spreads and dispelled the false notion that they are supposed margins of victory. Then we discussed how the books use a standard money line together with the spread in order to collect a commission on wagers as a fee for services rendered. We have seen how, when the BM sets the line just right, the action on a game is balanced and the house can sit back and enjoy the game knowing that they will make their juice no matter the outcome. Now we will discuss what happens when the action is not balanced and the book is exposed.

Nobody is perfect, of course. Sometimes BMs will underestimate public opinion on a game and, when the line comes out, the action will come in fast & furious on one of the two teams. In the Patriots/Bears game we discussed in previous articles, the Patriots were six point favorites. When a point spread comes out it has a standard money line attached and that line is at -110. So, whatever side you like, you would pay $110 for the chance to win $100 and this would stay the same all week if the action on the game was balanced. But let’s just say the action was not balanced, that it was offside on one of the teams. We’ll make that team the Patriots.

Within a few hours, the book had taken in $6600 in wagers on the Pats and only $2200 on the Bears. If the game had been played with this kind of offside action, the book would be down $3800 ($2200 collected on the Bears but has to pay $6000 in winnings). If the Bears were to win, the house would be up $4600 (collects $6600 on the Pats and only has to pay $2000 in winnings). For one game that may not seem like much. When you factor in, however, the fact that there could be 50 or more games on the board at any one time, it adds up to a pretty substantial risk.

At some point, in a case like this, the book will either have to change the lines they have set on the game or stop taking action on that game in order to keep the house from getting dangerously offside. In the case mentioned, the book could, if they so decided, stop taking action on the Patriots only and keep taking action on the Bears hoping to even things out that way. This sort of thing might happen with a barroom bookie but I have never seen it happen with an online book. We have other ways of attempting to balance the action. Every book has a ceiling above which they will not let themselves get further offside and it is up to that book to decide what they can afford to lose.

No book wants to stop taking action on a game. In order to avoid this, a book will raise the price on the team that is getting hammered and lower the price on the team they need more action on. At first, these changes are expressed in the attached money lines. The Patriots would go from -110 to -115 and the Bears would go down to -105. So now, instead of paying the same $110 for either team, the Pats will now cost $115 to win $100 and the Bears only $105 to win $100. If that extra value on the dog doesn’t convince people and the wagers keep pouring in on the Pats, the book will change the prices again. This time the Pats would go to -120 and the Bears would go down to even money. The Pats now cost $120 to win $100 whereas, on the Bears, you get back whatever you wager. $100 win for $100 wagered.

With better perceived value on the Bears, the book is hoping to swing some Pats bettors their way. If this does not work, eventually the book will have to change the spread itself, rather than the money line. It is when this happens that you will see different lines at different sites. In fact, even before wagering starts, you could see slightly different lines at more than one site. One of the reasons for this is that one book might know that their clientele likes to take the favorites and that they will take heavy action on the Patriots right from the get-go. In order to offset this somewhat, they might open their lines with the Pats -6.5 instead of the six points at other sites, hoping to persuade some bettors to take the Bears.

The ceiling for changing the spread is not the same for every game or even for both teams in the same game. If the house thinks the Bears will cover, they might be more willing to go further offside on the Bears than on the Patriots. They might let themselves get $40,000 offside on the Bears before changing the spread from +6 to +6.5 and only $15,000 offside on the Patriots before changing them to -6.5 from -6.

You may now be wondering why books even bother with changing the attached money lines. Why don’t books simply change the spreads at will to balance action instead? We will now take a look at two reasons why books hesitate to change spreads.

Getting Sided: Getting sided happens when the book takes in $110 on the Patriots at -6. To balance the action, the book changes the spread to -6.5 and, sure enough, they then take in $110 on the Bears and the action is balanced. What if the score, though, ends up with the Patriots winning by exactly six points? Well, the people who took the early line of -6 have their wagers pushed and get their money back, but those who took the later Bears +6.5 line win and the house has to pay them $100. That $100 comes out of their pocket and that is called getting sided.

Getting Middled: Even worse than getting sided is getting middled. Say Team A opens at -6.5 and we get $110 immediately on them so we change the line to -7 and we suddenly find ourselves $220 offside. To offset this action, we change the spread again. This time, at -7.5, we finally take in sharp action worth $220 on Team B and end up with action balanced between the teams. That is what we wanted, right? Well, consider now that the game ends with Team A winning by seven points. Here, the early bettors who took Team A at -6.5 win $100; those who took Team A at -7 have their wagers pushed and those who took Team B at +7.5 win $200. The book is down $300! That is called getting middled.

You can see the balancing act books have to play with football spreads. On the one hand, they want to change the spreads to avoid being too far offside on one team. On the other hand, the fear of getting sided or middled keeps them from moving the spreads. If a book moves the lines too much, or goes too far offside, the losses can be devastating. It may seem strange but, even though books are in the gambling business, no book likes to take gambles. If they had it their way, they would always have balanced action on the opening lines. Unfortunately for them, that is rarely the case and they are almost always rooting for one side or another in any given game. Thanks, however, to the magic of moving football money lines and spreads at the right times and in the right directions, they don’t have to worry about ever losing too much. Much to our chagrin!

Next, we will take a look at how you can take advantage of fluctuations in the NFL football and college football point spread during the week in order to maximize your chances of picking the winners of the games.

In the previous section we learned that the numbers you see beside an NFL football game or college football game in the paper are hard to come up with for various reasons and that they have absolutely nothing to do with the game itself. I want you to keep this in mind when you are searching for the most useful lines on the games you like. I will explain now why those numbers are not related to the game itself, what they actually stand for and how they are set to make a commission for the book.

When we see an NFL game on the board that says, PATRIOTS -6, BEARS +6, we read it as, “The Pats are ‘favored’ by six points over the Bears.” Perhaps if another word had been chosen here to represent the line, instead of ‘favored’, things would be easier understood.

If you were to read the line on the game as, “The Pats are ‘held over’ the Bears by six points,” then this whole explanation should make more sense.

The six points here are not, in fact, the number of points the BMs believe the Patriots are actually ‘favored’ to win by in the game. Those six points instead represent the number of points the BMs feel they need to give the Bears, added on to the final score of the game, in order for 50% of players to feel inclined to place their money on the Bears to then come out as winners in the game. Again, the BMs feel that, if they give the Bears six points after the final score is tallied, one half of all players on that game will think those six points will be enough to put the Bears on top and will place their bets on the Bears to win, taking the points.

If one half of the players take the Bears, that means the other 50% of players will be taking the Patriots. These players think that, even with six points added on to their final score, the Bears still would not have enough points to beat the Patriots. In other words, these players think the Pats will defeat the Bears by more than six points. When the action is split 50-50 between the two teams playing, the BM has done his job perfectly and the action is said to be balanced.

So, for the first few times reading a line in a paper now, try not to read the line as the amount of points one team is ‘favored’ by. Instead try thinking of the line as the amount of points the BM is holding over the game, ready to take those points away from the favorite or give them to the underdog, depending on which side you chose. If you think taking those points away from the favorite would give them a loss on the scoreboard, you should take the dog and the points they would be given. Conversely, if you think that, even with those points added onto their final score, the dog still would not have enough points to be declared the winner, you should take the favorite and lose those same points.

With balanced action, the house cannot lose, no matter who actually wins the game or what the final score is. The only way the house will not win on this game is if the Patriots win the game by exactly six points. If that happens, once you factor in the six points to be taken off the Pats for the spread (or the six points added on for the Bears), the game would end up tied. When this happens, it is called a push and everyone simply gets their money back. Assuming a different score, all the house has to do now is sit back and collect the vigorish or juice, from the action they have taken in. The vigorish is what is left over from what the book has taken in after the winnings are paid out. With spreads, this juice is usually set at 10% on 100 and is called a dime line, a 10-cent line, or a standard line.

The standard line is expressed in the form of what is called a money line and, if shown beside the point spread, would appear as: PATRIOTS -6 (-110), BEARS +6 (-110). When dealing with spreads in both football and basketball where you see no attached money line, you may safely assume standard odds, or a line of -110.

But what exactly does that -110 represent? The money line is the amount you must wager in order to collect $100 in winnings. To win $100 on the Patriots in the game above, you would have had to have bet $110 and had the Patriots win by more than 6 points. If you had taken the Bears in the game you would have had to have wagered $110 and had the Bears win or lose by less than six points in order to collect $100 in winnings.

You can see why the BMs try to balance the action when you notice that, whatever side wins the game, the book has still taken in the same amount of action. But for every $110 the book has collected on the losing side, it only pays out $100 of that to the winner. The $10 left over is the vigorish, the juice. It is what keeps books in business, their commission. This is the goal of the BM when setting the spread for a game. Period. It is unrelated to who they think will win the game or by how much. It is simply an attempt to divide the betting public in half.

In fact, it does not actually matter who we say pays the vigorish but it seems to be more easily understood when explained as if the loser pays it. It could instead be said that the loser pays the $110 wager amount back to the winner. In this case, the winner has paid $10 out of his $110 wager amount to the book for the service and is left with his $100 in winnings. Same, same, but different.

One more time, simply. Bettor A lays $110 on the Pats. Bettor B lays $110 on the Bears. The action is balanced and the BM has done a perfect job at anticipating public opinion; the book can’t lose and half of all bettors will win. The book has collected $110 + $110 = $220. Whatever side wins will get back their wager amount of $110 plus $100 for the win. The loser gets nothing of his $110 wager amount back. So the book has collected $220 and has to pay out of that $110 (wager amount) + $100 (winnings) = $210 to the winner. $220 (collected) - $210 (paid out) = $10 left over. That $10 is the vigorish and is kept by the book for services provided.

We now know what a point spread is: It is the number of points given to an underdog and taken away from a favorite that a BM believes will evenly divide the betting public. Point spreads add a lot of excitement to games not just for books and bettors but also for the players themselves who use it sometimes as extra motivation when they see that no one thinks they can actually win the game unless we give them some extra points.

Now that we know what BMs are striving to achieve when setting point spreads and how the numbers associated with the point spread work, we can move on to what happens when a BM sets a line that does not divide the betting public evenly. We will look into what BMs do with those spreads and their attached money lines in order to limit the possible damage, or exposure, to the house. In other words, we will unmask the mystery of moving lines and will discover how books balance offside NFL and college football action.

Have you ever wondered what those numbers beside the NFL football or college football teams listed in the paper mean? Ever wondered why and how they change sometimes as the game draws near? Ever want to bet on a game but were too embarrassed to bring it up because you didn’t know how to read the lines properly? I know I can answer ‘Yes’ to all these questions. If you can answer ‘Yes’ to any one of them then you should enjoy learning about those numbers in the pages to follow- I’ll use very little math.

I used to know nothing about betting on NFL or college football, or any sport for that matter, except the odd $5 bet with a friend. When it came to reading the lines for the games in the paper, the only thing I could get out of those was who was playing. Even learning that the game was being held in the city of the bottom team, the home team, took me a while. Those plus and minus signs and those numbers in the hundreds in the second column might as well have been Greek to me.

After a while, I knew that the team with the minus sign was the team that was the favorite to win the game and the number in front of that sign indicated by how much they were favored: The higher the number, the more the team was favored to win the game. Conversely, the team with the positive sign in front of that number, which is always the same for both teams, was the team that was not expected to win the game. That team I learned to call the underdog or simply the dog. I also learned to call that indication of favoritism the point spread but I still did not really understand what it represented.

As time went on and I began working in this industry, I got to know some linemakers and was fortunate enough to have them allow me to watch as they did their magic and made up those numbers you see on the games. Watching these people make the odds, or the lines, was a revelation to me. At this point I had thought I knew a bit about why they made some teams favored over another team. I mean it only made sense on the surface that the linemakers were setting the lines indicate what they thought would be the difference in the final score of the game. I still had a lot to learn!

By watching and reading up on the subject, I found out that linemakers are divided into two groups. Those who simply make up lines to sell to newspapers or other forms of media are called oddsmakers while those who take action on the lines they make are called bookmakers. Bookmakers (BMs) may make all their own lines or they might also factor in lines set by oddsmakers before settling on the line they are going to put out for the betting public to wager on. Once bookmakers put their lines out, they start accepting bets on them. If too many people are picking one team, they say the game is offside and the BM has to then move the lines in order to try to achieve balance on the game.

OK, now I know there are some new terms here for some of you but trust me when I say that this will be all very clear shortly. Keep reading…

Back in the old days, for NFL football at the very least, things must have been much easier on the BMs. Before free agency began moving 100 or more players around each offseason; before the expansion of the league to 32 teams and before the expansion of the draft. Players used to stick with one team much longer. There was less movement amongst the coaching staffs as well, not to mention that there were far fewer teams to deal with. All of these things combined to make things much easier for linemakers when setting initial lines. This is especially true for the first few games of the season when some teams seem to be completely overhauled from the previous season but no one knows yet how the new players and/or coaches will come together as a team.

The bookmakers do not have an easy job. There are so many variables in so many sports that they need to be aware of. Don’t feel too bad for the BMs though. Players like you have to deal with the sweeping changes each season as well and that means that taking advantage of the lines, or gaining an edge, is not necessarily any easier for you to do. Where you as a player do have an edge, though, is that you get to pick and chose what games you feel strongly about and test your ability to pick winners only on those games you like enough. The BM has to take plays on all the games. When you find lines you like; lines you feel are weaker than what you would have given; you have what handicappers call an overlay or getting value and this is where you can gain that all-important edge over the house and win yourself something!

So what exactly is it then that the BMs are trying to do when they are setting these point spreads? Like I said earlier, it seemed obvious to me that they are trying to predict the difference in the score between the two teams playing the game. Yet with all they know, sometimes the score is in no way reflective of what the line was.

When I first started in the sportsbook industry I was in customer service, answering calls from clients such as you who had questions about a game or about how to place a bet or why a bet was settled the way it was settled. I don’t know how many times people asked me how the BMs could have been so wrong with the spread they put out. People would be mad, saying they had trusted the BMs when placing their bets and felt led astray with how wrong the spread was. This happened especially when the line had moved from a large number like ten to an even higher number as the game neared and then, when the game was played, it had actually been close. Sometimes the dog even had won. They would tell me that the BMs should have known how close it was going to be and should have moved the line in the opposite direction. How could the BMs be so wrong? It must have been fixed.

First, off, these people are confusing BMs with handicappers. Handicappers attempt to pick winners based on a system they have devised to take advantage of the lines made by bookmakers and offered for wagering by a book.

What I told these people who called in was this, “The NFL football line has absolutely nothing to do with the game being played or with the score of the game itself.”

They, of course, think they have heard me wrong. Usually I would then hear a phone being tapped on a table and then an incredulous, “What’s that, son?”

“Mutually exclusive,” I tell them, “The two are unrelated, lines or spreads and the game.”

I would always pause again here for effect. They, and you, need to remember what I just said. It will be the anchor for understanding the football point spread and what it means.

In the next section, we will discuss what a point spread is, why the BMs set the football point spread at a particular number and how it works in conjunction with the game and all those numbers you see in the paper.