Blake Butterfield

We have now covered the true reasoning behind NFL football and college football point spreads and dispelled the false notion that they are supposed margins of victory. Then we discussed how the books use a standard money line together with the spread in order to collect a commission on wagers as a fee for services rendered. We have seen how, when the BM sets the line just right, the action on a game is balanced and the house can sit back and enjoy the game knowing that they will make their juice no matter the outcome. Now we will discuss what happens when the action is not balanced and the book is exposed.

Nobody is perfect, of course. Sometimes BMs will underestimate public opinion on a game and, when the line comes out, the action will come in fast & furious on one of the two teams. In the Patriots/Bears game we discussed in previous articles, the Patriots were six point favorites. When a point spread comes out it has a standard money line attached and that line is at -110. So, whatever side you like, you would pay $110 for the chance to win $100 and this would stay the same all week if the action on the game was balanced. But let’s just say the action was not balanced, that it was offside on one of the teams. We’ll make that team the Patriots.

Within a few hours, the book had taken in $6600 in wagers on the Pats and only $2200 on the Bears. If the game had been played with this kind of offside action, the book would be down $3800 ($2200 collected on the Bears but has to pay $6000 in winnings). If the Bears were to win, the house would be up $4600 (collects $6600 on the Pats and only has to pay $2000 in winnings). For one game that may not seem like much. When you factor in, however, the fact that there could be 50 or more games on the board at any one time, it adds up to a pretty substantial risk.

At some point, in a case like this, the book will either have to change the lines they have set on the game or stop taking action on that game in order to keep the house from getting dangerously offside. In the case mentioned, the book could, if they so decided, stop taking action on the Patriots only and keep taking action on the Bears hoping to even things out that way. This sort of thing might happen with a barroom bookie but I have never seen it happen with an online book. We have other ways of attempting to balance the action. Every book has a ceiling above which they will not let themselves get further offside and it is up to that book to decide what they can afford to lose.

No book wants to stop taking action on a game. In order to avoid this, a book will raise the price on the team that is getting hammered and lower the price on the team they need more action on. At first, these changes are expressed in the attached money lines. The Patriots would go from -110 to -115 and the Bears would go down to -105. So now, instead of paying the same $110 for either team, the Pats will now cost $115 to win $100 and the Bears only $105 to win $100. If that extra value on the dog doesn’t convince people and the wagers keep pouring in on the Pats, the book will change the prices again. This time the Pats would go to -120 and the Bears would go down to even money. The Pats now cost $120 to win $100 whereas, on the Bears, you get back whatever you wager. $100 win for $100 wagered.

With better perceived value on the Bears, the book is hoping to swing some Pats bettors their way. If this does not work, eventually the book will have to change the spread itself, rather than the money line. It is when this happens that you will see different lines at different sites. In fact, even before wagering starts, you could see slightly different lines at more than one site. One of the reasons for this is that one book might know that their clientele likes to take the favorites and that they will take heavy action on the Patriots right from the get-go. In order to offset this somewhat, they might open their lines with the Pats -6.5 instead of the six points at other sites, hoping to persuade some bettors to take the Bears.

The ceiling for changing the spread is not the same for every game or even for both teams in the same game. If the house thinks the Bears will cover, they might be more willing to go further offside on the Bears than on the Patriots. They might let themselves get $40,000 offside on the Bears before changing the spread from +6 to +6.5 and only $15,000 offside on the Patriots before changing them to -6.5 from -6.

You may now be wondering why books even bother with changing the attached money lines. Why don’t books simply change the spreads at will to balance action instead? We will now take a look at two reasons why books hesitate to change spreads.

Getting Sided: Getting sided happens when the book takes in $110 on the Patriots at -6. To balance the action, the book changes the spread to -6.5 and, sure enough, they then take in $110 on the Bears and the action is balanced. What if the score, though, ends up with the Patriots winning by exactly six points? Well, the people who took the early line of -6 have their wagers pushed and get their money back, but those who took the later Bears +6.5 line win and the house has to pay them $100. That $100 comes out of their pocket and that is called getting sided.

Getting Middled: Even worse than getting sided is getting middled. Say Team A opens at -6.5 and we get $110 immediately on them so we change the line to -7 and we suddenly find ourselves $220 offside. To offset this action, we change the spread again. This time, at -7.5, we finally take in sharp action worth $220 on Team B and end up with action balanced between the teams. That is what we wanted, right? Well, consider now that the game ends with Team A winning by seven points. Here, the early bettors who took Team A at -6.5 win $100; those who took Team A at -7 have their wagers pushed and those who took Team B at +7.5 win $200. The book is down $300! That is called getting middled.

You can see the balancing act books have to play with football spreads. On the one hand, they want to change the spreads to avoid being too far offside on one team. On the other hand, the fear of getting sided or middled keeps them from moving the spreads. If a book moves the lines too much, or goes too far offside, the losses can be devastating. It may seem strange but, even though books are in the gambling business, no book likes to take gambles. If they had it their way, they would always have balanced action on the opening lines. Unfortunately for them, that is rarely the case and they are almost always rooting for one side or another in any given game. Thanks, however, to the magic of moving football money lines and spreads at the right times and in the right directions, they don’t have to worry about ever losing too much. Much to our chagrin!

Next, we will take a look at how you can take advantage of fluctuations in the NFL football and college football point spread during the week in order to maximize your chances of picking the winners of the games.